NASCAR

Fantasy NASCAR Picks – Pocono: Sunoco Red Cross Pennsylvania 500

It’s only been a few weeks, but the NASCAR Sprint Cup series is making the return trip to Pocono this weekend – and for the drivers that ran well at Indianapolis, the 2.5 mile tri-oval couldn’t arrive sooner. There are a lot of similarities between Indy and Pocono – with long straights and flat corners (well, two of the three at Pocono are flat, at least) and that, combined with the fact that they ran the first race here just eight weeks ago, means that the team and drivers should be very well prepared to tackle the big Pennsylvania track.

Because the races are so close together, it comes as no surprise that the favorites this time around are pretty much the same as the June race, but a lot has changed over the past two months with both the drivers and the Chase picture, so don’t fall into the trap of simply plugging the same teams you used in the first race into your fantasy NASCAR and calling it a day. Here are my best bet picks for your NASCAR fantasy team this weekend at Pocono.

Five-year averages (plus the first race of 2010, for 11 races total) are listed next to each driver, including Average Running Position (ARP), Average Finish (AVG), and Driver Rating (RAT).

Favorites at Pocono Raceway

1. Denny Hamlin (ARP: 9.3  AVG: 8.6  RAT: 119.1): When it comes to Pocono, there is Denny Hamlin and then there is everyone else. Hamlin hit the ground running at Tricky Triangle, sweeping both races in his rookie year, and has hardly looked back – Denny leads all drivers in ARP, AVG and Driver Rating, and he has led more laps in his nine starts here (479) than anyone else has over their past 11 races. Hamlin has finished sixth or better in seven out of his nine races at the 2.5 mile tri-oval, and has won the past two consecutive events including the June race this year. There is never really a sure thing in NASCAR, but Denny is a must-start every time out at Pocono.

2. Tony Stewart (ARP: 10.9  AVG: 9.8  RAT: 101.4): Hamlin may be the driver to beat, but Stewart is not very far behind. No only does Smoke have two Pocono wins, but he is incredibly consistent here, having scored top-10 finishes in nine of the last ten races. Tony couldn’t come through on his bid to win at his home track of Indianapolis last week, but he is still finished fifth, and is one of the hottest drivers in NASCAR right now, having moved from 16th in the standings all the way up to 9th in the past seven races. This is the time of year when Tony is at his best, and this is the perfect race for fantasy NASCAR owners to take full advantage.

3. Kurt Busch (ARP: 11.6  AVG: 12.9  RAT: 103.7): The elder Busch brother has been rather quiet lately, but don’t let that make you shy away from him this weekend. Kurt’s analytical approach has always worked well at Pocono, where the three drastically different corners demand just the right car setup to be successful. Kurt has top-10 finishes in seven of his last ten races at the 2.5 mile track, including both of his career wins here, and his 367 laps led over the past five seasons are second only to Hamlin. After finishing 10th at the Brickyard and 6th in the first Pocono race, Busch should be all set for another run at the checkered flag this weekend.

Safe Picks for a Solid Pocono Finish

1. Juan Montoya (ARP: 20.6  AVG: 18.9  RAT: 74.6): This is a case where looking at the stats only tells part of the story. Montoya struggled in his first few attempts at Pocono, but has been excellent of late, with finishes of eighth or better his past three times around the triangle. After another heartbreaking loss at Indy last week, JPM should show up to Pocono with plenty of motivation – last year, when a speeding penalty cost him a win at the Brickyard, he showed up at Pocono and ran second. Expect that same type of determination this weekend, and it would be no surprise at all to see a similar result – ignore the statistical averages and start him if you have room on your roster.

2. Jeff Gordon (ARP: 11.0  AVG: 12.0  RAT: 96.1): Gordon has been a model of consistency this season, but still has no wins to show for it. Winning is something he has done in the past at Pocono, though – in addition to four career victories at the Pennsylvania track, Jeff has top-10 finishes in six of his last eight races here. His 23rd place at Indianapolis last weekend broke a streak of five straight top-5 finishes, and with his record at Pocono, there is a good chance he could start a new streak Sunday. His inability to win this year keeps him out of the top category, but Gordon is still a strong contender.

3. Jimmie Johnson (ARP: 10.9  AVG: 10.5  RAT: 103.7): Johnson has run into another rough patch the past few races, but Pocono provides the perfect opportunity to break out of his slump. Jimmie has two wins at the Tricky Triangle, and has finished seventh of better in five of his last six races here. After three consecutive finishes outside the top-20 heading into this weekend, you can be certain that Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus have their sights set on a top-5 finish to get back on track, and there is a good possibility they could achieve that goal – the No.48 team always seems to step up when they need to the most.

Pocono Underdogs

One of the most difficult things to do when picking a Fantasy NASCAR team is filling those last few slots – either “C List” drivers in category leagues, or low-budget drivers in salary leagues. Here are a few drivers that could present a good value for your team this weekend:

1. Jamie McMurray (ARP: 20.9  AVG: 20.5  RAT: 69.6): If you are lucky enough to be in a league where the categories or salaries are set at the beginning of the year and stay the same all season long, then McMurray is essentially a freebie in what can be a tough category. Sure, Jamie only has one top-10 finish in his last five Pocono races, but his convincing win at the Brickyard should put him in a great position to perform well at Pocono with the tracks’ similar features. If you can still get him cheap, go ahead and start him.

2. A.J. Allmendinger (ARP: 20.2  AVG: 21.2  RAT: 70.3): The Dinger has been far from spectacular this season, but he has still managed to be surprisingly consistent, finishing 16th or better in eight of the last nine races heading into this weekend – with most of those finishes just outside the top-10. A.J. finished 10th in the June race at Pocono, and is certainly capable of turning in a similar performance Sunday. Chances are low that he will be a surprise contender, but the chances of him scoring decent top-15 points for your fantasy NASCAR team are very good.

3. Sam Hornish, Jr. (ARP: 22.5  AVG: 18.6  RAT: 67.7): Hornish hasn’t been terribly good the past few races, but he is definitely worth consideration this weekend. Sam has top-10 finishes in two of his last three at Pocono, and he came in 11th in June – his last really solid performance this season. He’ll definitely be a cheap pick-up for your fantasy NASCAR team, and while he’s not as consistent as Allmendinger, Hornish is just as capable of a finish either just inside or just outside the top-10 at Pocono.

Because the two Pocono races are so close together, putting together your fantasy NASCAR roster can be a little less stressful, but be careful to look at each driver’s recent performance – by throwing in some hot teams along with the perennial favorites, you can maximize the number of points your NASCAR fantasy roster scores.