NASCAR

Fantasy NASCAR Picks – Indianapolis: Brickyard 400

The off-week is over, and it is time to go racing again in the NASCAR Sprint Cup series, and at one of the most famous tracks in all of motorsports – Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

With all of the history at the Brickyard, it is right behind Daytona one the list of must-win race tracks for many Cup drivers. But with only one race a year at the legendary 2. 5 mile oval, there are not many chances to kiss the bricks, and every team will be sure to bring their best equipment to the track.

For Fantasy NASCAR owners – Indy is easy in one respect, and difficult in another; there are a few drivers that have dominated here in the past, but once you get past those ‘A’ List drivers, things become a bit more difficult, with many drivers struggling to consistently finish in the top-10. After sifting through all the statistics, here are my best-bet picks for your NASCAR Fantasy team at Indianapolis:

Five-race averages are listed next to each driver, including Average Running Position (ARP), Average Finish (AVG), and Driver Rating (RAT).

Favorites at Indianapolis Motor Speedway

1. Jimmie Johnson (ARP: 13.5  AVG: 16.0  RAT: 104.9): Johnson is the classic example of an all-or-nothing driver when it comes to Indianapolis – in his past six races at the Brickyard, he has won three times, and finished outside the top-35 in the other three. You cannot argue with wins, though, and if you take into account that those three finishes outside the top-35 were due to accidents and an engine problem, then it is easy to put Johnson at the top of the list of favorites this weekend. Sure, the No.48 team has run into problems the past couple of races leading up the the Brickyard, but he is a two-time defending winner of this race and has to be the top pick Sunday.

2. Tony Stewart (ARP: 8.4  AVG: 7.2  RAT: 111.8): Stewart’s connection with Indy is well known to NASCAR fans – he grew up in Indiana, currently lives there and raced Indy cars at the famed 2.5 mile track before coming to the Cup series. With his history at and affinity for the Brickyard, it is no surprise he always runs well here; in addition to two wins, Tony has finished eighth or better in eight of his last nine Indy races and leads all drivers over the past five years in championship points scores (791), driver rating (111.8) and laps in the top-15 (676). Smoke has top-10 finishes in five of his last six races heading into this weekend, a streak which started back at Pocono – a track that is usually compared to Indy. If you can start both Johnson and Stewart, do it. If you can only choose one – flip a coin. Or better yet – go with the driver that qualifies better, since track position is so important at Indy.

3. Jeff Gordon (ARP: 14.3  AVG: 8.2  RAT: 96.2): Gordon is the perfect example of why you sometimes have to look at more than just five-year averages when picking your fantasy NASCAR team. It is not that Gordon has had poor stats over the past five races – they are actually very solid, as the numbers in his stat line attest. But his 8.2 average finish and 96.2 driver rating do not take into account what happened before 2005 – where Gordon racked up four wins and only finished lower than sixth two times in 11 races. Put all of those stats together and throw in the fact that Jeff has been amazingly consistent heading into this weekend (top-5 finishes in the last five races), and the No.24 team is just as strong of a fantasy NASCAR pick as either of the other two drivers in this category.

Safe Picks for a Solid Brickyard Finish

1. Juan Montoya (ARP: 13.3  AVG: 17.2  RAT: 102.0): If Montoya’s ARP and AVG stats do not seem to match up with his driver rating at the Brickyard, it is all thanks to a lead foot last year on pit road; JPM was poised to win last year’s race at the Brickyard, until a speeding penalty ruined his day. That pit road gaffe may have tainted his averages, but it does not change the fact that Montoya knows how to get around the flat corners at Indy; he has started second here twice, finished second once (in 2007) and the 116 laps Juan has lead in his three races here are more than Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon have lead in their last five. JPM has had an up-and-down season, but do not let that make you shy away this weekend – the former Indy 500 winner should be a factor at the end of the race, especially if he qualifies well.

2. Matt Kenseth (ARP: 14.3  AVG: 13.0  RAT: 93.6): Kenseth seems to be his own worst enemy this season – he’s been moping around telling everyone who will listen how awful his team is, yet Matt is still eighth in the point standings and is coming to a track where he has performed quite well in the past, sporting a 13.0 average over the last five races and scoring top-10 finishes four times over that span. Matt has been hovering just outside the top-10 in the past few races heading up to the Brickyard, and if he can get his confidence issues squared away, Kenseth could easily be near the pointy end of the field Sunday afternoon.

3. Mark Martin (ARP: 9.2  AVG: 6.2  RAT: 104.8): Mark is a tough pick for Indianapolis only because he has struggled in 2010, but it is difficult to argue with his stats here – Martin has finished seventh or better in four of the last five Indy races, has a series-leading 6.2 average finish over that span and his 756 championship points scored in the past five races is second only to Stewart. Still, Mark has never won at the Brickyard, and it is no secret that the No.5 team does not look nearly as strong this year as they did in 2009. Indy presents an opportunity for Martin to turn his season around, though, and while there is risk involved he could be a solid fantasy sleeper for your NASCAR team this weekend.

Indy Underdogs

One of the toughest things to do when picking a Fantasy NASCAR team is filling those last few slots – either “C List” drivers in category leagues, or low-budget drivers in salary leagues. Here are a few drivers that could present a good value for your team this weekend:

1. David Reutimann (ARP: 23.6  AVG: 25.3  RAT: 60.3): Reutimann does not have blistering stats at the Brickyard, but he did finish eighth here one year ago, and more importantly – he is coming off a win. Reutimann’s checkered flag at Chicagoland gives the team plenty of momentum heading into the weekend, and he performed reasonably well a few weeks back at Pocono – where turns two and three are very similar to Indy. Sure, Rootie is a sleeper pick – but he’s got momentum, and that could be a big advantage.

2. A.J. Allmendinger (ARP: 16.6  AVG: 15.0  RAT: 80.2): The Dinger recovered from his post-wreck blow-up at Daytona with a respectable 14th at Chicagoland, and he could do a little better at Indianapolis; A.J. finished 10th on the 2.5 mile track in 2008, and he looked good a few weeks ago at Pocono, too, finishing 10th in that race as well. Allmendinger’s price should still be low in most fantasy NASCAR leagues, and if he can gain a little more consistency, he makes a nice budget pick.

3. Joey Logano (ARP: 19.0  AVG: 12.0  RAT: 79.0): Logano finished 12th in his only race at the Brickyard, last season. The potential is there for him to turn in a repeat performance, but his consistency this year has been awful. He is worth a shot, though, because if Joey and the No.20 team show up with a decent setup, the youngster could turn in a top-10 performance if he stays out of trouble.

Anybody can tell you who the favorites are at Indianapolis – a quick glance at the all-time wins leaders make that an easy job. For your Fantasy NASCAR team to win at the Brickyard, though, you need depth, and if you lean towards drivers that have a history of finishing strong and add in a few C-list drivers with a lot of potential, you have a much better chance to maximize the number of points your Fantasy NASCAR team scores.