NASCAR

Fantasy NASCAR Picks – Daytona: Coke Zero 400

It’s time for some fireworks on the track, as the Cup series throws on the restrictor-plates for a 4th of July weekend tradition in NASCAR – the annual Daytona night race, otherwise known as the Coke Zero 400.

Fantasy NASCAR owners are all-too-familiar with the uncertainty that surrounds picking their roster at the high-banked, 2.5 mile tri-oval; with the cars running two and three-wide in the draft at 190 miles and hour – the drivers are only ever one small mistake from triggering the ‘Big One’, and nobody – not even the best in the sport – are immune from getting caught up in the mayhem.

Making things more complicated this time around is the fact that NASCAR has made the restrictor-plates bigger for this race, so there is a chance we could see more passing, but it is uncertain exactly how much of an impact it will have on the outcome of the race.

I’ll make the disclaimer right now – there are no guarantees at Daytona, anything can happen. That said, here are my best-bet picks for your Fantasy NASCAR roster at Daytona:

I’ve added a stats line with each drivers averages over the last 11 races (including this year’s Daytona 500) – Average Running Position (ARP), Average Finish (AVG) and Driver Rating (RAT)

Favorites at Daytona International Speedway

1. Kurt Busch (ARP: 14.4  AVG: 15.3  RAT: 92.7): Busch has never won at Daytona, but he sure does have a knack for staying out of the ‘Big One’ – before his 23rd place finish in this year’s 500, the elder Busch brother had scored top-10 finishes in his previous five Daytona races. Kurt’s 1389 championship points and 184 laps led here over the past five years are both third-best among Cup drivers. Kurt may be 6th in the points, but he is still one of the hottest drivers in the sport right now, and with his ability to avoid the big wreck, should be a good fantasy pick that is in the mix at the end of the race.

2. Tony Stewart (ARP: 12.2  AVG: 13.5  RAT: 104.5): Stewart isn’t quite as good as Busch about avoiding wrecks at Daytona, but when he does stay out of trouble, nobody is more consistently at the front of the field. In addition to three career wins at the 2.5 mile tri-oval, Smoke is the defending winner of this race, and his recent stats here are impressive – his driver rating of 104.5 over the last 11 is tops in the Cup series, as are his number of championship points scored (1496) and laps led (516). Tony’s cars have been much stronger over the past month, and after finishing 2nd at New Hampshire, he could be primed for a win this weekend. Tony is as much of a ‘must start’ option in this race as anyone.

3. Matt Kenseth (ARP: 14.4  AVG: 14.7  RAT: 93.4): I know, things haven’t been going well for Roush Racing – or Ford, for that matter – but with bigger restrictor plates and recent changes at the organization, I am optimistic about the blue-oval boys’ chances this weekend. Kenseth is the best of the Roush bunch at Daytona; the No.17 has finished eighth or better in five of the last six here, including a win in last year’s Daytona 500. Matt hasn’t had the best luck recently, but this could be a big turnaround weekend for him and his Roush teammates.

Safe Picks for a Solid Daytona Finish

1. Clint Bowyer (ARP: 15.5  AVG: 12.3  RAT: 88.4): Bowyer may not be a glamorous pick in the middle of your Fantasy NASCAR roster, but he sure could be an effective one. Clint has an average finish of 12.3 at Daytona – tops among Cup drivers over the past five years – and has top-10 finishes in four of his last six here. After a fourth-place tally in this year’s Daytona 500 and a seventh at Talladega, Bowyer has looked strong in restrictor-plate races this season. He is a solid, if unspectacular performer that should score points for your Fantasy team.

2. Kyle Busch (ARP: 10.9  AVG: 17.6  RAT: 100.6): Kyle presents an interesting case at Daytona – his Average running position is an excellent 10.9, but his average finish a disappointing 17.6 over the past five years. Most of the disparity comes from a 41st place finish after a wreck in last year’s Daytona 500, but the Shrub has also missed out on the top-10 his last two races here, and that alone keeps him out of the ‘Favorites’ category. Still, when he is on, Kyle is a fixture near the front of the field, and the potential rewards make him worth the risk.

3. Carl Edwards (ARP: 16.0  AVG: 18.7  RAT: 84.0): Like his teammate Kenseth above, Cousin Carl is a bit of a gutsy pick this weekend thanks to Ford’s struggles, but there is reason to believe that he could be a contender; Edwards’ averages aren’t that great here, but he has top-10 finishes in three of his last four at Daytona, and over the past few seasons Carl has gotten much better in the draft. Edwards is hanging on by a thread to the 12th and final spot in the Chase, and has to come up with something big this weekend to stay in the Championship picture – look for the No.99 to race hard.

Daytona Underdogs

One of the toughest things to do when picking a Fantasy NASCAR team is filling those last few slots – either “C List” drivers in category leagues, or low-budget drivers in salary leagues. Here are a few drivers that could present a good value for your team this weekend:

1. Jamie McMurray (ARP: 17.2  AVG: 19.8  RAT: 82.1): In leagues where Jamie was relegated at the beginning of the season to the ‘C list’ or a low budget category – now is the time to take advantage of a freebie. Sure, Jamie has been inconsistent – both this season and at Daytona in general – but where else are you going to find a budget driver who has multiple wins at a track? McMurray is the reigning Daytona 500 winner, and he finished second at Talladega. Start him if  he qualifies in your league.

2. Elliott Sadler (ARP: 18.4  AVG: 15.0  RAT: 79.5): Trivia Question – over the past nine Daytona races, how many drivers have more top-10 finishes than Elliott Sadler? The answer – none. Seriously. Sadler has finished in the top-10 six times here since 2006. Matt Kenseth and Kurt Busch can both claim to match that mark, but nobody surpasses it. It doesn’t make sense to me, either, but you can’t argue with the results – Sadler is a solid sleeper pick.

3. David Ragan (ARP: 17.6  AVG: 14.1  RAT: 79.3): Like Sadler, Ragan is another driver that seems to perform better at Daytona than at other tracks; his stats aren’t as impressive as Elliott’s, but he does have top-10 finishes in two of his last four at the 2.5 mile tri-oval and has only finished lower than 16th once in his career – leading to an average finish of 14.1. Ragan has been pretty disappointing this season, but this could be a decent race to take a flyer on him.

Restrictor-plate races are always tough to pick; a driver could lead half of the race, and then get taken out in an accident they had nothing to do with, and unfortunately, there are no fantasy points for ‘almost winning’. The race will be unpredictable, but if you go with drivers that have a history of avoiding the ‘Big One’, you can maximize the number of points your Fantasy NASCAR team scores.